The latest report by maritime analyst Sea-Intelligence indicates schedule recovery could take 8-9 months. In a statement, the company said the system is “so far out of balance” there was no historical precedent to describe this situation. However, to measure schedule reliability, Sea-Intelligence used the U.S. West Coast labor dispute of early 2015 which caused major delays and bottlenecks, as it provided the most “realistic baseline” for comparison.
The pre-labor dispute period August 2011 to July 2014 established the average baseline reliability on Asia-North America West Coast (NAWC). February 2015 which marked the peak impact of the labor dispute, saw reliability plunge 70 percentage points below the baseline (see Figure 1). Currently, schedule reliability on the Asia – NAWC is at 10.1%, slightly below the 12.6% recorded in February 2015. Following the resolution of the labor dispute in 2015, it took eight to nine months for reliability to return to its baseline number.
The latest report by maritime analyst Sea-Intelligence indicates schedule recovery could take 8-9 months. In a statement, the company said the system is “so far out of balance” there was no historical precedent to describe this situation. However, to measure schedule reliability, Sea-Intelligence used the U.S. West Coast labor dispute of early 2015 which caused major delays and bottlenecks, as it provided the most “realistic baseline” for comparison.
“As the 2015 problem was resolved in 6-7 months, this means an average reduction in excess delay of 1.25-1.46 days per month,” said Alan Murphy CEO of Sea-Intelligence. “If the current port and hinterland system manages the same speed of recovery this time, the delays also suggest that resolution would take …8-9 months,” he added. There are no signs that the industry has started on this path of recovery yet.
Source: Sea-Intelligence
Both Japan and Busan have faced a drop in connectivity as carriers cancel port calls to make up for delays caused by U.S. West Coast congestion. Consequently, Japanese and South Korean shippers have resorted to using short-sea services from Japan and South Korea to China for cargo to be transshipped to mainline services.
Contrary to the surge in volumes at China’s key gateways, Japan’s top ports - Tokyo, Yokohama, Kobe, Nagoya, and Osaka have faced a reduced number of Trans-Pacific calls from 400 in 2019 to 350 in 2020. Additionally, Trans-Pacific container volumes dropped about -30% in the same period. Data from the Busan Port Authority and maritime consultancy Drewry indicate the number of missed calls on Trans-Pacific services have increased from 14 times in November to 49 times in January as carriers drop Busan to make up for overall service reliability.
Source: Journal of Commerce
Delivery bottlenecks and high prices for container freight could start easing in the second quarter of this year said Hapag-Lloyd CEO, Ralf Habben Jensen to journalists. His comments were similar to those made by Maersk earlier last week of a “strong first half” in container throughput and a cooling down of volumes in the second half of 2022.
Jansen said the slowdown in the current Omicron wave, new vessels entering the marketing. However, he cautioned that contract negotiations between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) scheduled to start in April could be a possible disruptor.
“In the short-term, rate levels will remain elevated. I would hope to see the first signals of improving congestion from Q2, with the wild card of the U.S. labor negotiations on the West Coast. If an agreement [does not happen] then it will be a different scenario.” The ILWA and PMA acknowledge that currently congested U.S. West Coast ports would be crippled if a contract is not reached by July 1.
Source: Port Technology International
As the Canadian trucker protest moves into its second week, the impact on significant import/export trade lanes continues.
Spot rates on “auto alley” between Laredo and Canada continue to climb as capacity tightens due to fewer trucks heading into the U.S. for loads of auto parts back to Canadian auto manufacturers.
Dry van capacity was very tight in the lower Midwest market of North Platte, NE, following last week’s 18% increase in demand.
The Northeast remains tight following the winter storms.
Capacity continues to loosen on the West Coast in Los Angeles.
Continue to expect one to two days delay for LTL shipments in areas shaded in red (see Map 1)
Source: Shipco Transport
